"Iran carried out the bombing in response to the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus and achieved all its objectives," the Iranian military said in a statement. Tehran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel on Saturday night.
Iran claims that Israel carried out the airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the capital of Syria, on April 1. They threatened to give a stern reply. Seven members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard and six Syrians were killed in the airstrike. However, Israel has not acknowledged the attack on the consulate, but is believed to be behind it.
Profit and loss:
Iran claimed that the attack on Israel was successful. But, according to Ali Nouri Zadeh, an Iran researcher and director of the London-based Center for Arab-Iranian Studies, Iran did not score any points with the attack. Rather, he said, it exposed the weakness of the Iranian regime because they could not hit any targets on Israeli soil. This has sparked ridicule among some Iranians.
Zadeh believes that Iran could have achieved more if it had continued its so-called "psychological warfare" with Israel.
On the other hand, Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center Middle East Studies researcher Dr. Eric Rundtsky says Israel has failed by announcing increased state alert. It has fueled concern among Israelis, he said, and many fear a repeat of such attacks.
Zadeh said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now feels more powerful.
Although Israel had been under heavy criticism until Saturday, the Iranian attack helped restore Israel's strong ties with the United States and other Western nations. Israeli researchers may have gained something from the attack, but they lost it in other ways. His idea that the attack highlighted Israel's failure to recognize Middle Eastern power as well as Israel's failure to prevent Iran from striking at its borders.
Returned to intimacy with other countries:
Israeli researcher Eric Rundtsky also believes that the Iranian attack has been profitable for Israel. It could serve as a turning point politically, he said, as it is the first time in months that Israel has enjoyed Western support. He said Israel could return to a close partnership with these countries, especially the United States, after so long of unprecedented tension in relations.
In contrast, Iranian researcher Ali Nouri Zadeh believes Tehran has lost politically as well as internally and externally. He said Iran had lost the support of neighboring countries and had no support for them.
He noted that efforts are underway from some quarters to drag Iran into direct war with the United States.
Both researchers acknowledge internal pressures in both countries.
Rundotsky notes that great concern is spreading inside Israel. He says that with the war, anger grew because of internal political problems. As well as the recent lack of progress in freeing the hostages held in Gaza, this anger seems to have increased.
Zadeh also believes that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is facing intense pressure not only from the streets but also from prominent figures within his regime.
"The [Iranian Revolutionary] Guards (Iranian Armed Forces) are under pressure after seven leaders of Iran's Al-Quds Brigades were killed in an Israeli strike, as the Guards demand revenge."
"Fire Message"
Retired Lebanese general Hisham Jaber - a military and strategic expert and director of the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies in Beirut - told BBC News Arabic that "the most surprising thing about this attack is that it was not surprising".
He said this was because two weeks of "psychological warfare" had led to the airstrikes, while Israel was "panicking".
"These attacks have disrupted many civil services and forced many Israeli citizens to flee their homes. As a result, it caused emotional and material damage.
Jaber called Iran's move a "fiery message".
Because through this, the ability to reach further into Israeli territory has been revealed, as well as the ability to test the readiness of the Israeli air defense system.
He also believes that the attack has helped Iran regain the prestige it has lost politically in recent years. Because Iran followed the "policy of strategic patience" for so long and it has benefited them both militarily and strategically. Lebanon's military experts believe that Iran launched this large number of drones to confuse Israel's air defenses.
He noted that Israel's Iron Dome alone could not intercept all the missiles and that it had to be assisted by US and British forces based in the Middle East.
"If Israel chooses to respond militarily to this attack, they can reach the Iranian mainland with their missiles, but they won't be able to do that because now there is a danger of a strong response from Iran," Jaber said.
"Israeli planes can drop precision bombs on Iran, but they would have to fly over Arab countries - which Iran has warned about - or launch missiles from US military bases in the region, which the US will not allow," he added.
Changing course and regaining confidence
Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, argues that Israel gained more from the attack than Iran. He explained that the Iranian attack did not cause significant damage or casualties to Israel, and that the entire Western world now supports Israel. He said the US is trying to garner Western support for Israel by providing arms, intelligence and financial support to Israel.
Gerges said that US President Joe Biden has called for an emergency summit of the G-7 nations to rally support for Israel.
Mr. Biden is presenting Israel as the victim: "Netanyahu will benefit politically by temporarily diverting attention from the catastrophic and horrific events going on in Gaza," Gerges added.
Israel has faced intense criticism from the West over the past few months for its atrocities in Gaza, now that Netanyahu will benefit from restoring relations with the West, especially President Joe Biden, after the Iranian attack.
'Israel's strategic loss'
But Gerges also sees a downside to Israel. He said the Iranian attack exposed Israel's weakness, which was a strategic loss for them. He also said that Iran has benefited politically from directly communicating to its people, allies and enemies, its desire to confront Israel.
Gerges believes that by carrying out the attack, Iran proved that Israel cannot defend itself without its Western allies, as the United States, Britain, France and Jordan shot down many of Iran's missiles.
He also said that recently, Israel wanted to prove that Iran was weak and did not have the courage to face them by carrying out one attack after another against Iran. However, recent Iranian attacks have undermined that vision.
According to Gerges, "The region is now at the center of tensions, which is why both countries have vowed to strengthen their positions.
The region is on the brink of collapse politically, militarily and economically, he warned.
0 Comments
Do not share any link.